Metodología para la cuantificación de la incertidumbre asociada en la predicción del comportamiento de producción de un yacimiento altamente heterogéneo sometido a inyección de agua
Abstract
This paper focuses on an integrated methodology for the prediction of the production behavior of a highly heterogeneous oilfield subject to water injection, quantifying the related uncertainty in both, the stratigraphical reference framework and the petrophysical model. The proposed methodology involves the evaluation of the related uncertainty through hierarchical classification and the selection of the geostatistically generated models corresponding to the P10, P50 and P90 quantiles, based on a variable indicating the behavior of the parameter to be evaluated. In the evaluation of the uncertainty related to the stratigraphical reference framework, the percentage of interconnected oilfield was used as a hierarchy definition parameter. The sweeping volumetric efficiency at a certain time, as obtained from the flight time of the streamline simulation, was used as the hierarchical classification variable for petrophysical models. This paper shows the application of the proposed methodology to a real case. The example is carried out within a pilot project at the La Cira Field, which includes three productive wells and nine injecting wells, making up three injection–production patterns. Results show the potential of the proposed technique in the case of an oilfield like this one, in which a complex distribution of flow channels has been conformed due to fluvial deposits, thus discouraging supervision and prediction of the oilfield’s behavior.
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